30 March How confident are you with the project forecast? March 30, 2012 By Administrator Account Estimating, Project Management Ideas closure, cost, duration, effort, estimating, execution, forecast, initiation, lifecycle, pert, planning, project 2010, risk, three-point estimating, work effort 0 the accuracy of the forecast should always increase As every project progresses through it's lifecycle, the team’s forecast will evolve. The forecast value may move up or down, however, the accuracy of the forecast should always increase. The basis for increasing accuracy is that all estimates are forecasts with some level of uncertainty and as the project progresses the unknowns/uncertainty will decrease. This holds for forecasting any of duration, work effort, or cost. There are two important concepts in the below figure: 1) We see the team’s forecast (solid middle line) moves up and down as time progresses; and, 2) the range in value between the High and Low Estimate decreases in steps at each phase. A key action for the Project Manager is to communicate to all stakeholders that early estimates have higher uncertainty. As part of communication with management and finance stakeholders, I usually ask for a reserve to be added onto my estimates based on the higher uncertainty of estimates and potential negative impact of risks. This amount can be progressively reduced and “given back” as the project progresses over time. Some types of projects inherently have high uncertainty during initiation and planning. For example, integration of custom software. When faced with projects involving high level of unknown, the Project Manger should use “Three-Point Estimating”. This technique will include the full range of possible values of the estimate and reduces bias that can lead to a highly optimistic or pessimistic estimate. I usually create custom fields within Microsoft Project 2010 to capture and calculate the three point estimates. The approach is also called PERT. The formula is PERT Estimate = (Optimistic Estimate + 4 X Most Likely Estimate + Pessimistic Estimate) / 6. Other project teams that work on a high number of similar projects will develop good enterprise knowledge for making estimates. An example would be an energy and gas company that knows 2 resources can lay pipe at 20 metres per hour and the material cost is $150 dollars per foot. Estimates in these situations can be very accurate, from an early stage. A Project Manager may have little control of the level of uncertainty or risk when handed a new assignment. However, appropriate application of the concepts above will lead to successfully managing and quantifying estimates of duration, effort, and cost. Stephen Wise www.IntegrationProfessionals.com Related Articles Unlock the Power of Project Management: for Business Leaders 1. Stewardship Acting as a diligent and responsible guardian of the project's resources and interests, prioritizing ethical considerations and the welfare of all stakeholders. Good Practices to Implement Regularly review and optimize resource allocation. Uphold ethical standards and transparency in all project activities. Foster an environment of mutual respect and integrity. How to Measure Conduct stakeholder satisfaction surveys. Monitor resource utilization rates against benchmarks. Track ethical compliance through internal audits. Real World Example A project manager at a construction firm ensures that all materials are sourced ethically, labour is fairly compensated, and the environmental impact is minimized, reflecting stewardship in action. 2. Team Building a culture that promotes accountability and respect among team members, enhancing collaboration and project success. Good Practices to Implement Encourage open communication and feedback. Define clear roles, responsibilities, and expectations. Recognize and celebrate team achievements. How to Measure Evaluate team performance through regular reviews. Measure team morale and engagement through surveys. Assess the clarity of roles and responsibilities via feedback. Real World Example A software development team implements agile methodologies, fostering a collaborative environment where each member's contributions are valued, leading to innovative solutions and high team satisfaction. 3. Stakeholders Actively engaging and collaborating with all parties impacted by the project to understand their needs and align expectations. Good Practices to Implement Identify and map all stakeholders early in the project. Establish regular communication channels and updates. Involve stakeholders in decision-making processes. How to Measure Track stakeholder engagement levels and feedback. Monitor the alignment of project outcomes with stakeholder expectations. Evaluate the effectiveness of communication strategies. Real World Example In launching a new product, a company conducts focus groups with potential customers (stakeholders) to gather insights, ensuring the final product meets the market’s needs and expectations. 4. Value Ensuring that the project delivers outcomes that are beneficial and offer tangible value to the organization and its stakeholders. Good Practices to Implement Align project objectives with organizational strategy. Implement value management practices to prioritize features based on their return on investment. Regularly review project deliverables to ensure they meet user needs and business objectives. How to Measure Use performance metrics to assess the project's impact on business goals. Conduct post-implementation reviews to evaluate the realization of benefits. Gather feedback from end-users and stakeholders on the value received. Real World Example A healthcare provider implements a new patient management system to improve service delivery. The system reduces wait times, improves patient satisfaction, and streamlines operations, demonstrating clear value to both the organization and its patients. 5. Holistic Thinking Recognizing and managing the interdependencies within the project and its environment to make informed, comprehensive decisions. Good Practices to Implement Employ systems thinking to understand the project's context and interrelated components. Facilitate cross-functional collaboration to leverage diverse perspectives. Conduct regular risk and impact assessments to anticipate and mitigate systemic issues. How to Measure Evaluate the effectiveness of decision-making processes through outcome analysis. Track the frequency and impact of unintended consequences or systemic issues. Assess the level of cross-functional collaboration and integration. Real World Example A multinational corporation launching a global marketing campaign uses holistic thinking to consider cultural sensitivities, legal requirements, and market conditions in different regions, ensuring a cohesive and effective strategy across borders. 6. Leadership Inspiring, guiding, and fostering an environment where the project team can achieve their best work through effective leadership. Good Practices to Implement Develop leadership skills such as empathy, communication, and problem-solving. Set clear visions and goals for the project team. Provide support and resources for professional development and problem resolution. How to Measure Assess leadership effectiveness through team feedback and performance metrics. Monitor the achievement of project milestones and team objectives. Evaluate the growth and development of team members over the project lifecycle. Real World Example The project manager of a software development project leads by example, actively resolving impediments, facilitating knowledge sharing sessions, and encouraging innovation, leading to the timely delivery of a high-quality software product. 7. Tailoring Customizing the project management approach to best suit the project's unique context, ensuring methods and practices are appropriate and effective. Good Practices to Implement Assess the project environment to determine the most suitable methodologies (e.g., Agile, Waterfall). Adapt processes and tools to meet the project's specific needs and challenges. Involve the team in the tailoring process to leverage their insights and buy-in. How to Measure Review project outcomes to assess the fit and effectiveness of the chosen approach. Conduct retrospectives to gather team feedback on processes and methodologies. Measure project performance against initial expectations and adjustments. Real World Example A project manager leading a complex software integration project combines Agile practices for development with traditional Waterfall methods for client approvals, tailoring the approach to balance flexibility with necessary controls. 8. Quality Integrating quality into both the project processes and outcomes, ensuring that deliverables meet the required standards and expectations. Good Practices to Implement Define quality standards and criteria at the project's outset. Implement continuous quality assurance and control measures throughout the project lifecycle. Engage in regular reviews and testing to ensure deliverables meet established standards. How to Measure Track and analyze defects or non-conformance issues. Conduct stakeholder surveys to gauge satisfaction with the project’s outcomes. Measure the effectiveness of quality improvement initiatives over time. Real World Example An automotive manufacturer implements a zero-defect program for a new vehicle launch, incorporating rigorous testing and quality checks at every production stage, resulting in a product that exceeds industry safety standards. 9. Complexity Navigating and managing the various complexities within the project, using knowledge, experience, and agile responses to ensure success. Good Practices to Implement Apply complexity assessment tools to understand the project's complexity dimensions. Use adaptive and flexible project management approaches to respond to changing conditions. Cultivate an environment of learning and improvement within the project team. How to Measure Evaluate project performance in relation to its complexity factors. Monitor the team’s ability to adapt to and manage unforeseen challenges. Assess the effectiveness of problem-solving and decision-making processes. Real World Example A technology firm managing a large-scale IT infrastructure overhaul uses an adaptive project management approach to navigate technical, organizational, and operational complexities, achieving milestones through flexible planning and problem-solving. 10. Risk Identifying, analyzing, and managing potential project risks proactively to minimize their impact and capitalize on opportunities. Good Practices to Implement Develop a comprehensive risk management plan. Regularly identify and assess new risks as the project progresses. Implement risk response strategies and monitor their effectiveness. How to Measure Track the number and severity of risks that materialize. Measure the success of risk response actions in mitigating impact. Evaluate the return on investment for opportunities pursued. Real World Example During the construction of a new office building, the project manager implements early weather-related risk assessments and contingency planning, avoiding delays and cost overruns through proactive measures. 11. Adaptability and Resilience Maintaining flexibility and a capacity to respond effectively to change and challenges, ensuring the project's ongoing viability and success. Good Practices to Implement Encourage a mindset of flexibility and openness to change among the project team. Implement agile project management techniques to allow for rapid adaptation. Build contingency planning into the project's strategic planning processes. How to Measure Assess the project's ability to adapt to significant changes without derailing. Monitor recovery times from setbacks or challenges. Evaluate the effectiveness of contingency plans when activated. Real World Example A global event planning company swiftly adapts to the COVID-19 pandemic by transitioning to virtual events, leveraging technology to maintain engagement and deliver value to clients amidst unprecedented challenges. 12. Change Management Effectively managing and facilitating change within the project and organization to achieve the desired outcomes and future state. Good Practices to Implement Establish clear communication plans for all change initiatives. Involve key stakeholders in the change process to gain support and mitigate resistance. Regularly review and adjust strategies in response to feedback and outcomes. How to Measure Monitor the speed and effectiveness of change implementation. Track stakeholder engagement and support levels throughout the change process. Assess the achievement of change objectives and overall impact on the project. Real World Example A software company implements a new project management tool across its development teams, using structured change management processes to ensure smooth adoption, with training sessions, feedback mechanisms, and ongoing support facilitating the transition. References Project Management Institute. (2021). A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK® guide) (7th ed.). Project Management Institute Turnaround: Leading a Project Recovery It’s true! Most every failed project had an earlier phase as a troubled project. I will look at techniques a Project Manager can use to gain control of a troubled project and lead a turnaround. Does this sound familiar? The volume of identified defects has swamped testing or development or change control. No-one on the project team has a firm view of when the project will be finished. The budget is red and no-one knows how much additional work is still required. The customer is losing confidence and showing signs of buyer’s remorse. Team members are working excessive hours of overtime, email wars are breaking out, and personal relationships are unraveling. The Executive is no longer on the same page as to the status and outlook for the project. Vendor contractual misunderstandings are emerging and creating additional challenges. If you have a troubled project, crisis is imminent and your world needs to change. Sooner rather than later management will request increased and more detailed updates. Customers, team members, and other internal stakeholders, such as audit, will soon be checking old project emails and asking additional questions. Now is not the time to become defensive. You are the Project Manager, and now more than ever, the stakeholders need you to lead them through the turnaround steps to project recovery. Step 1 – Initiate Recovery Seek guidance from the project team, business owner, and corporate methodology on an appropriate approach to initiate recovery planning. This step shouldn’t bog you down. Equally important as the guidance gained, is the communication you share with the stakeholders. That is, “You are leading the team into project turnaround and recovery mode.” In order to understand the status of the project and the nature of the recovery required, interview key stakeholders and analyze key project documentation such as project org chart, Charter, Work breakdown Structure, Issue log, Schedule (planned and actual Activities, resources, assignments, timing, and costs), and Change Log. Ensure the Project Team and executive reflect on the status of the project as measured against the business case benefit. Many events have occurred since original assumptions and it is possible that changes in market needs, technology, and enterprise risk, et cetera, render the existing project as unviable. A very common mistake is to rationalize the continuation of a project due to the vast money and effort expended to date. Never use the amount of time and effort spent to date as a reason to continue a project with a broken business case – the money that has been spent can’t be recovered, however, it is possible that additional money about to be spent could be re-allocated to bring relatively more benefit to the organization. If the business case is broken, recovery is not possible, and your job as Project Manager is to ensure an updated business case is approved or the project is stopped. Step 2 – Planning Recovery Assuming that the Executive, Sponsor, and Project Team are in agreement with implementing a project recovery, it is time to gather the stakeholders in a series of planning sessions. It is crucial that all stakeholders are represented in the re-planning exercise and that they are representing their relevant departments in committing to the new estimates in the plan. The Project Manager has several levers available to make change over the original project plan. I recommend working each of the three levers below. Reduce Scope Facilitate review of the incomplete scope elements by the team. Identify and validate dependencies, resource requirements, and alignment to the business case. Request or impose a haircut to the scope of the project. Increase Schedule Seek deep clarity on the reasons and alternatives to any “drop-dead” dates articulated by stakeholders. Review duration estimates and resource leveling for the remaining work. It is common for team members to underestimate overall time required and to spread individuals too thin across numerous tasks. Unless the customer is willing to accept reduced deliverables, avoid planning backwards from a “drop-dead’ date as this is likely one of the factors that sent the project schedule into trouble in the first place. Increase Productivity Tailor the approach to meetings, documentation, bug tracking, task assignments, and overall communication for ways to make it easier to get the work done. A caveat – if the team is working on the wrong things or running into problems that impact others, now more than ever, it is up to the PM to surface these things and help to resolve. Now is not the time to tailor your approach by skipping status meetings or decreasing PM follow-up activities. As an output of the re-planning exercise a new plan must be built. To ensure the new plan will not fail, it must have buy in/commitment from all appropriate stakeholders; and it must be maintained and updated rigorously by the Project Manager. Step 3 – Execute the Plan Over and above the tremendous efforts from those doing the work, the success of the recovery depends on the persistent monitoring and tracking of the agreed recovery schedule and issue log. Avoid the noise - a good PM must repeatedly step-up and exert pressure to steer the team away from the many potholes that seem significant but in actuality, are not really blocking the path of the project. Conversely, the PM must be prepared to step outside their own comfort zone to influence stakeholders for the sake of the project when tasks are slipping or issues aren’t being resolved in a timely fashion. The essence of project recovery turnaround is to demonstrate leadership and renew the team with a refreshed analysis of the situation, a re-invigorated sense of purpose and shared commitment, and a clear and detailed plan to reach the end of the project. Finally, I note that I have not addressed reporting and metrics unique to project recovery. This will be covered at a later date. Stephen Wise Integration Professionals http://www.IntegrationProfessionals.com/ Re-Frame Project Success for the Strategic Business Project success is most often measured by answering two questions. (A) Did we meet the schedule goal? And (B) Did we meet the budget goal? A good indicator project success will improve over time is periodic review of the Time and Budget Dashboard by management. This approach is valid but not sufficient for framing project success over the long-term. Time and Budget Dashboard[/caption] It is very common that once a project is closed, it falls off management reporting dashboards. This is a serious mistake! Strategic success is dependent on the outputs of the project, not the inputs of Time and Budget. The outputs / benefits of the project are measured after project close and take the dimensions of customer satisfaction and business success. It will take several months or quarters after the project is finished until customer satisfaction can be measured. It will take even longer until business success can be measured. By re-framing the measurement time-horizons for projects and their outputs, we can provide more effective visibility and accountability at the management level for the strategic success of projects. The re-frame is to include medium-term and long-term results as part of project tracking and reporting. Team success can be measured in the Short-term. That is Time, Budget and other metrics such as scope, quality, stakeholder engagement, and others. Customer success can be measured in the Medium-term. Customer success is the metrics that indicate how well the product is meeting actual needs and how well the product is providing customer net benefits. Business/Strategy success can be measured in the long-term. Business success is the metrics that indicate how well the overall strategy is benefiting the enterprise, such as market development and risk profile. Measurement Time Horizons[/caption] Organizations have made great strides implementing project methodology and management reporting on time and budget. However a systemic flaw is introduced by reporting only short-term project success measures. There is correlation between success in short-term and success in the long-term but there is more to the picture. We need to re-frame and extend the time horizon for tracking project success to include medium and long-term measures. By linking Customer (medium-term) and Business (long-term) actual measures to project reporting we will gain improved insights on the projects that have either advanced or held-back the realization of strategic objectives. Stephen Wise http://www.IntegrationProfessionals.com/ 7 things to carry in your Project kit Here are 7 things to keep on your person or nearby that will help you excel as a Project Manager. 1. White Board markers A magic device that propels a conversation and creates a record. 2. Wristwatch Place a wristwatch in front of you so you can keep your eye on the time so that the important items get covered and you end meetings on schedule. Integration Professionals Project Kit 3. 2 kinds of Pain reliever - ASA and Ibuprofin Make a drawer in your desk available for your project team with necessities. Learned this one from a wedding planner. Could also include stain remover, candies, taxi chits. 4. Project contact list with email, phone, and mobile contacts Missing a team member?, late for a meeting?, need urgent help from an executive? – always carry a printout of your contact list with email and phone info. 5. Project Issue / Risk log , Schedule, Change Log, and Budget Summary Some people like to carry around a complete Project binder. I’ve boiled it down to a few key items that I update periodically – the purpose to have written notes to be able to give unplanned “hallway” updates if you bump into an important stakeholder. 6. Post-it notes and Black Sharpie markers See number one above and add steroids. Get all meeting participants working on a plan, issue, or risk concurrently, if appropriate. Keep one idea per note. Print in large block letters. Post on wall and re-arrange to suit. Use a camera phone to snap the results. 7. Coffee-cards for instant recognition Giving out $5 coffee cards just to recognize folks for attending a meeting smacks of desperation – but it is still appreciated. What items should be added to the list? Add your ideas by replying below. Stephen Wise http://www.IntegrationProfessionals.com/ Get me a good Project Manager We all hear it. "We need someone who gets it." What is it? How do I get some? Do I read and follow the Project Management Institute's recently published fourth update to the Project Management Book of Knowledge (PMBOK)? What about Agile, ITIL, (Information Technology Information Library), PRINCE2 (Projects IN Controlled Environments) and all the other approaches to managing change? For what it's worth, I think they all work. And I don't have any concerns that someone from PMI headquarters is going to trot out and rescind my PMP designation if I make that claim. In fact, as a Project Manager, I learn from PMBOK that it is my responsibility to apply the appropriate methodology and tools given the needs of the project. Let's face it - greater folks than I have observed "there is nothing new under the sun". All methodologies are trying to facilitate a change from current state to future state. If we choose our tools and methodologies appropriately and according to the circumstances, it is really much more important that we agree on the approach, rather then which model we have chosen. So what are the non-negotiables for a Project Manager to be considered succesful and prove that they get it? I have five must-haves that I just can't live without. Will review them next post. The most powerful leadership skill an expert Project Manager needs for success No one can be an expert in all fields. A Project Manager is a skilled expert on leading teams to initiate, plan, execute and close projects. These are among the most important skills, but not the most powerful. If you aren’t feeling well you go to see your General Practitioner (GP). Your GP understands the big picture and upon identifying a specific issue or risk with your health may refer you to a specialist. In this analogy the GP is like a Project Manager – they do not need to be an expert in every field and one difference between okay GP’s and excellent GP’s is the speed and quality and follow-up related to the referral. All Project Managers will tell you that the most commonly used skill on a project is communication. However, neither communication nor planning are the most powerful skills in the arsenal. The true multiplier, the most powerful skill, is the ability to learn from others. The ability to learn from others enables the PM to absorb the nuances of the culture, mitigate the hidden risks of the processes, and allow for the complexity of the technology. When a diverse project team gets together it doesn’t matter who is the smartest or most senior in the room. What matters is learning from everyone’s skills and experience and channeling that back to the team so the whole is greater than the sum. The most powerful leadership skill is the ability to apply the greater whole in order to reach the objectives of the project quicker and with less risk of failure. Stephen Wise https://www.IntegrationProfessionals.com Comments are closed.